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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.